Capital Market Outlook – 1st half of 2023
The Black Swans lose their Horror!
Imagine you get up one morning, there is no hot water in the bathroom, and there is food in the fridge you don’t like as well as drinks you don’t like. And when you want to leave the house, the door is locked, and your key no longer fits. That’s pretty much what the year 2022 felt like for investors: old habits, certainties and practised procedures suddenly came to an end. For twenty years, we had become accustomed to low inflation and ever-falling interest rates. To the zero line. Or even below.
We had the certainty that more and more globalisation, the increasing outsourcing of labour to low-wage countries and the use of international trade chains and low freight rates would lead to more and more prosperity, cheaper production, moderate wage settlements and low prices.
The increasing structural shift of production to Asia was paying off. This also had to do with the low energy prices over the years. The fact that the seeds of deglobalisation had already been planted in recent years in China under Xi Jinping and in the USA under Donald Trump was largely ignored.
In 2022, we all woke up, and the key no longer fits. It is the beginning of a new age […]
Read further in our capital market outlook 2023!
- Looking back on 2022: A fundamental break in the trend
- Winners and Losers: The comeback of the oil companies
- Market Outlook: The new monetary and geopolitical policy/li>
- Bonds: The historic opportunity for double-digit returns
- Equities: Today’s cash cows and tomorrow’s winners
- Foreign Exchange: The expensive US dollar and opportunities in Scandinavia
- Commodities: The influence of geopolitics on prices
- Danger spots in 2023: Inflation and risk of recession
- Looking forward: Our strategy for the year 2023
Free download for our Capital Market Outlook 2023
What will happen in the first half of 2023?
Two things are the same in every bear market: Fear dominates in the crisis and the belief that this crisis is different from all previous crises. In retrospect, very few fears become reality. In the end, one is annoyed about the missed once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. So the question must be: “Where are the opportunities in this crisis?”
We want to answer this question and act accordingly so that you as an investor benefit in the long term!
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